Most market participants are now betting on a soft landing, that the US economy can avoid recession. This paper focuses on the US Labor Market to identify if a gradual weakening is building under the surface. Download: PragmaOne_Unemployment1 August 2023
Our earnings model predicts double digits negative growth in 2023. Download: PragmaOne_EarningsCliff November 2022
To get an idea of possible actions from the FED, we will take a new peek at the Taylor rule. Our recalibrated response function allows us to make a hypothesis about the potential path for Fed funds rates. Download: PragmaOne_TaylorRule September 2022
Classic forecasting models have failed to predict the surge of inflation. We propose a new model taking into account the supply issues by considering shipping costs as a shortage indicator. We anticipate that the US Core inflation will remain above 3% for most of 2023. Download: PragmaOne_CoreCPI August 2022
We define a simple model to forecast shelter inflation, a major component of the US Core inflation. Download: PragmaOne_HousingCPI August 2022
We examine the inflation expectations from the University of Michigan Survey, the FED of Philadelphia’s Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the prices of TIPs to decide which is the most reliable. Download: PragmaOne_InflationMeasuresComparison July 2022